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Rise and rise again!Steel mill stop limit continuous steel prices up to 4000 yuan

Release:2019-03-05   Edit:Admin   From:Rising steel grating

 On March 4, the domestic steel market generally rose, tangshan pufang small rise 10 to 3510.Into early march, the spot market turnover began to volume, steel inventories have declined.At the same time, the recent futures, billet price strong operation, also boost market confidence, yesterday businesses generally pull up.


Playable steel

4, rebar, hot coil, iron ore futures advance and then depression, "bifocal" futures weakness downward.On the same day, the main screw of phase ii broke through 3800 and remained above MA5. There was an upward trend at the intersection of DIF and DEA. The third line of RSI index was located at 60-70 and was running on the track of brine belt.


Playable steel

Five domestic construction steel producers raised prices by 30-58 yuan per ton on Thursday.


Playable steel

A, steel spot


Construction steel: construction steel prices rose significantly yesterday, the average price of rebar in major cities 4048 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.Weekend billet small rebound and environmental protection limit production news impact, the market as a whole deal atmosphere is still available, yesterday morning all over the price is rising, rising after the deal slightly general, afternoon luo blunt high fall back, a day deal performance slightly poor, some areas appear small loose.However, the afternoon billet continued to rise, the low level of the rebound in the market is still positive.From the current situation, the supply and demand fundamentals have no obvious risk, the market mentality is stable, the cost support is strong.The increase in the number of steel production maintenance, environmental protection policies are constantly introduced on the late supply of a large impact, and then affect the inventory height and the speed of destocking, the current market is still in the initiative to destock cycle, the price repeated is inevitable, the center of gravity shift can still be expected, the short-term construction steel price is expected to run strong.


Raw material spot market

Hot rolled coil: the price of hot rolled coil was in a slight upward trend on 4th, the market demand was relatively good, and the merchants' willingness to sell was low.Merchants feedback, the current cost has been basically flat with the market price, merchants lower willingness to sell slightly lower.At present, the market inventory growth has slowed down, for the market price to play a better role.Steel mills feedback, march overall order is fair, market demand has been reflected, which has played a certain obstacle to the price decline.From the perspective of price quotation of current mainstream cities, the price difference between the three places continues to recover, and the short-term pressure in the northern market has slowed down.As for the short-term market situation, the demand recovery is still acceptable, the inventory pressure is not obvious, so the short-term trend is mainly strong shock.


Raw material spot market

Cold rolled sheet coil: yesterday, the national cold rolled sheet coil spot price strong operation.The national average price was 4,389 yuan per ton, up by 24 yuan from the previous trading day. The prices in Shanghai, lecong and tianjin were 4,320, 4,390 and 4,270 yuan per ton, respectively.From last week, with the futures disk gradually go well, so that businesses pushed up the mentality of strong, coupled with part of the northern customers feedback steel shipment is slow, market resources slightly nervous, so cold rolling price appeared yesterday.For the afternoon market most businesses are optimistic that the weather is gradually improving in the south, the release of demand is not a problem.Comprehensive look at today's cold rolling price shock strong operation.


Raw material spot market

Medium and thick plate: the domestic market price of medium and thick plate increased slightly on March 4. The average price of 20mm common plate nationwide was 4009 yuan/ton, which was 24 yuan/ton higher than the average price of 3 days.In the short term, although the output of steel mills increased, but with the resumption of steel mills in the early stage of maintenance in major regions, the recent growth space is limited.After the reduction of market inventory, the specification of part of the gap or stage will cause the market shortage of goods caused by the price support.In addition, the decline of the factory warehouse is greater than the decline of the social warehouse, the subsequent market concentration of the arrival pressure.At present, the accumulative inventory of some low alloy categories indicates that the recent downstream demand, including steel structure, is weak. Although the demand of some wind power projects this year is still acceptable, the overall proportion of medium and thick plate categories indicates that the gap still lacks other downstream efforts to make up for it.It is expected that the short - term thick plate market or a continuation of the trend.


Raw material spot market

Ii. Spot market of raw materials


Import ore: affected by Friday night even iron substantially high impact, morning spot price than Friday generally increased 15-20 yuan/ton.Shandong main port of PB powder mainstream price 640-645 yuan/ton, the main port of tangshan area PB powder mainstream price 645-650 yuan/ton, but the superposition of wuan region 14 steel mills to leak and the leak influence during the two sessions steel mills, steel procurement emotional weaker in north China, in addition affected by weaker afternoon disk, steel mill enquiries are more enthusiasm is not high, traders offer inflated in the morning, afternoon's price mood is thicker, clinch a deal so performance is relatively light.


Coke: on the whole, the coke price remained stable on the 4th.A large coke enterprise in hebei increased by 100 yuan/ton on March 3. Many coke enterprises in hebei have raised the second round, but so far there is no deal.According to Mysteel incomplete statistics, since February 14, 2019, a total of 27 steel plans to overhaul, overhaul concentration is the strongest wuan, a total of 14 steel mills start from March 3 to 31 "wuan key industries in March 2019 to strengthen peak production implementation of the notice, the Mysteel estimates, notice during execution, wuan is expected to affect the hot metal output was 1.986 million tons, the specific implementation, please pay attention to my web tracking report;Recent downstream steel inventory in the gradual rise, most of the current has reached the high level, coupled with wu 'an area maintenance expectations, steel prices continue to rise resistance is strong;High port inventory, port traders high shipping pressure, general foreign trade transactions.At present, the steel coke game is intense, the short-term coke price probability continues to hold steady.


Scrap steel: yesterday the scrap steel market was stable and weak operation, most steel mills in hebei fell in price, down 20-50 yuan/ton, some steel mills in the south rose in price, up 30-40 yuan/ton.Yesterday, the futures market performance is strong, but the downstream market demand is not released, scrap steel market mentality is unstable, positive shipment, scrap steel arrived more, hebei most steel mills cut scrap purchase price, the rest of the region steel mills follow the wind adjust prices, steel mills adjust scrap prices according to their own arrival.In the market, scrap steel supply is tight, some merchants raise prices and grab goods, but most of them are not optimistic about the future, receiving goods more cautious.


Three, special steel spot market


Special steel: yesterday, the market price of special steel rebound 10-20 yuan/ton.Nationwide, 45#4194 yuan/ton, 40Cr4420 yuan/ton, 20CrMnTi4576 yuan/ton, 20# billet 4177 yuan/ton.The total steel bar inventory of jiangsu youte steel plant is 379,000 tons, which is 14600 tons less than that of last week, down 3.7% month-on-month, 43,000 tons less than that of the same period of last year (2018/3/4), down 10.2% year on year.Steel mills, huai steel a blast furnace maintenance, the rest of the normal production of steel mills.Steel inventory continued to decline, the follow-up price support is strong.It is expected that the short - term high - quality steel market price shock is strong.


Industrial wire: 4, the national industrial wire steel prices rose slightly, including cold heading, wire drawing and hardwire the national average respectively compared with the previous trading day up 22 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton up 17 yuan/ton, and as of closing, the cold heading steel average price of 4177-4183 yuan/ton, drawing an average of 3959 yuan/ton, hard line average price 4080 yuan/ton, the volume of 28760 tons, compared with the previous trading day up 2370 tonnes, a 8.98% increase.Yesterday, the volume of regional increase, south China region turnover of 2,200 tons, 450 tons more than the previous trading day, an increase of 25.71%;Volume in east China was 16,610 tons, up by 2040 tons or 14.00% from the previous trading day.North China area turnover of 9,070 tons.Short - term industrial wire price shock - oriented operation.


Steel market forecast


Supply side: after the Spring Festival, the domestic blast furnace has resumed production. It is expected that the average daily output of crude steel in February will rise month by month.The average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises in early and middle February was 1.9219 million tons and 1.9474 million tons respectively.


In early march, the pollution weather in beijing-tianjin-hebei region and surrounding areas became worse, and the production limit of some blast furnaces was increased, and the expansion of the supply end was limited in the short term.Last week, 247 blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 78.88%, month-on-week reduction of 0.18%.


In recent days, tangshan heavy pollution weather Ⅰ level emergency response;Taiyuan, weifang, start the heavy pollution in cities such as Beijing, xi 'an weather Ⅱ level emergency response.In march, 14 steel mills in the city of wu 'an tightened controls and tightened production limits by 10 percent (overall blast furnace capacity utilization is expected to fall to 37 percent from 48 percent of the original plan).


Demandside: according to Mysteel monitoring, on March 1, the daily trading volume of 237 construction steel traders was as high as 226,000 tons, up 62.9% from the previous trading day.On March 4 steel market turnover is still strong, indicating that the downstream site to resume work, the demand should enter the peak season level.


Inventory: last week after the first drop in steel stocks, steel social inventory growth slowed down significantly, is expected to fall overall steel inventory this week.According to Mysteel, the inventory of sample steel mills last week was 6.52 million tons, down 4.1% from the previous week and 5.9% from the third week after last year's holiday.Last week, social steel inventories rose 3.9 percent from the previous week, down 4.3 percent from the third week of last year.


Overall, due to the heavy pollution in the north of the weather, is expected to expand the short - term steel production strength is not large.And the downstream procurement has been launched, demand growth faster than the expansion of supply, steel inventory is expected to fall this week as a whole, short - term steel prices or strong shock.However, in the medium and long term, supply side expansion pressure is still large, steel prices should not be overly optimistic.