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Daily review: weak demand signs of steel prices will still fall slightly

Release:2019-06-14   Edit:Admin   From:Rising steel grating

Today, the black commodity futures weak shock, iron ore end significantly pulled up, closed up 1.56%, coal shock downward, narrow range shock throughout the day, thread, hot coil closed down, capital inflows, disk profit continues to narrow.Shanxi Province has issued a circular on its 2019 action plan to win the battle against blue sky pollution.Coke enterprises or will face production restrictions, the supply of aftermarket impact.Downstream short-term orders can still, but steel mill profit damage, to the upstream price willingness is strong, it is recommended to meet the low short operation.Coking coal 1909 low range oscillation movement.Recently, due to the impact of coal mine safety accidents, safety supervision has been tightened. However, the introduction of environmental protection policies in major coking production areas has benefited the demand for coking coal, and the overall trend of coking coal futures is weaker than that of coke. Therefore, short-term operation is recommended.Steel industry data showed this week, production and inventory have been higher, steel may continue to weak adjustment, but static valuation perspective RB1910 below the space is not pessimistic, long-term demand is still not pessimistic, suggest to continue to go long RB1910 on the low.


Spot fundamentals


3.1. Steel raw materials




Data source: steel link data




Data source: steel link data


Steel billet: on 13th, steel billet was affected by the late rise of the black futures market. The steel mill implemented settlement of 3500/ ton today, and the market price reduction expectation failed.The warehouse spot price is 3,560 yuan/ton before noon. In the afternoon, the spot price is increased by 3,570 to 3,580 yuan/ton due to the influence of the last offer.The downstream finished materials trading before noon is weak, afternoon is also affected by the futures market, the transaction has improved, but the downstream steel mills continue to upside down profit and mature material stock impact, part of the production suspension sales inventory.This week, we investigated the continuous existence of billet supply gap, but the warehouse inventory increased from decline to rise, the decline of billet inventory in downstream factories increased, direct resources were put into storage passively, and downstream production began to digest the inventory in the factory.The inventory data and blank price difference indicate that the production and sales pressure of rolling mills has increased again, which is in line with the survey expectation.At present, the billet market is full of contradictions, supply gap, social database rise, billet cost continues to increase;Downstream prices fell, the stock of finished products increased.Billet related upstream and downstream, upper end support, lower end pressure, the weekly price is significantly affected by the market fluctuations, but the monthly trend is more dominated by the demand side.Today is a comprehensive period of the market, tomorrow billet prices may be trending strong, but to a certain extent, a deal.


Pig iron: pig iron market quotation steady in the fall, poor deal, business mentality pessimistic.Shanxi yicheng cast iron down 30 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, ductile iron down 30 yuan/ton to 3110 yuan/ton, iron down 30 yuan/ton to 2900 yuan/ton, jiangsu xuzhou cast iron quotation 3080 yuan/ton, ductile iron down 20 yuan/ton to 3060 yuan/ton, iron down 30 yuan/ton to 2820 yuan/ton, tax included.The order quantity of foundry enterprises gradually declines, so that the demand of cast iron is in a downturn without improvement, the manufacturer's shipment is not smooth, the inventory is too much, the bargaining space is increased, the iron factory sells more at reduced prices, it is expected that the pig iron market will be stable in the weak operation tomorrow.


Scrap steel: scrap steel market today, a small adjustment of some steel mills, range of 10-50 yuan/ton, steel mills are adjusted according to the arrival of their own scrap purchase price.The Mysteel scrap price index rose 0.07% to 2528.6.Recently the steel market performance is flat, demand is not good, social inventory and steel mill inventory appears double increase, and scrap steel due to steel goods shortage, slightly pull up to attract goods, the market is looking forward to rising sentiment, most businesses do not sell goods, or shipping speed is slow, resulting in a substantial decline in steel mill inventory.At present, the price of raw materials is not good, scrap steel market without strong support, the market do not blindly bullish, scrap steel market is expected to stabilize consolidation tomorrow.


Domestic ore: the market price of some domestic ore producing areas increased on June 13.The price of fanchang in east China increased by 20 yuan per ton.Specifically, in north China -- tangshan, 66% of dry base cash with tax is ex-factory 835 yuan/ton; in west China, 66% of dry base cash with tax is ex-factory 845 yuan/ton; in qian 'an, 66% of dry base cash with tax is ex-factory 855 yuan/ton;Zunhua 66% dry base cash with tax ex-factory RMB 815 / ton;


Imported ore: the iron link contract last upward 14 points, the spot market trading sentiment of imported ore was ignited, the regional quotation has increased 7-15 yuan/ton;The quotation of PB powder in jiangnei region is less, and it is estimated that the transaction price is more than 830 yuan/ton.Shandong, tangshan region morning traders support price, steel acceptance is not high, but the closing price after the increase in inquiries, deal volume.


3.2. The finished material


[varieties of pu steel]




Data source: steel link data




Data source: steel link data


Construction steel: the price of domestic building materials was relatively weak on 13th, the average price of rebar in mainstream cities was quoted at 4045 yuan/ton, 16 yuan/ton lower than yesterday.The average price of wire was quoted at 4201 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from yesterday.Yesterday, the market turnover is not good, so early business quotation slightly loose, disk medium shock drop, spot trading blocked, part of the market second cut prices, afternoon by iron ore close up drive, the end of the period of screw rise, turnover slightly improved.At present, the overall market capital is tight, downstream customers have difficulty in payment collection, and most of them purchase on demand. The demand continuity is poor.Overall, the price of domestic building materials is expected to narrow tomorrow, some areas or will stabilize.




Data source: steel link data


Hot rolling: 13 hot rolling coil price shock in major cities in China weakened, as of press time 3.0 hot rolling coil national average price 3923 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton over the previous trading day, 4.75 hot rolling coil national average price 3869 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton over the previous trading day.Today black weaker commodity futures market volatility, hot spot market prices down, today the market clinch a deal the weaker, clinch a deal high fatigue, limited to clinch a deal the business quotation are lower, the market at present is given priority to with shipment, east China today's mainstream price 3810-3820 yuan/ton, south China, 3870-3880 yuan/ton, north China, 3800-3820 yuan/ton, points area, the recent prices drop increases in east China, north China price is a bit strong.At present, the arrival of goods in east China has increased, and the vertical and horizontal resources have arrived successively, which has improved the condition of broken specifications in the early stage, and the price difference of thin and thick specifications has been repaired.And steel mills recently single situation is not good, a lot of steel mills out of the market, policy has been relaxed, but traders on the later is still not optimistic, the current demand is weak, supply remains high, the later pressure is obvious, comprehensive, tomorrow hot rolling price or narrow range shock operation.


Cold rolling: today the national cold roll spot price weak operation, the national average price of 4243 yuan/ton, the previous trading day down 8 yuan/ton, including Shanghai, lecong, tianjin prices are 4160 yuan, 4210 yuan and 4080 yuan/ton, according to market feedback, Shanghai, hangzhou, zhengzhou and other places down 10-30 yuan, the rest of the stable price.According to the inventory data released today, the cold rolling mill warehouse increased by 0.09 million tons and the social warehouse decreased by 0.66 million tons. The data is neutral. Meanwhile, it can be seen that the steel traders are not optimistic about the later market and take the initiative to reduce the order quantity to hedge the pressure caused by the inventory increase.It is expected that the national cold rolling coil price vulnerable operation tomorrow.


Medium and thick board: the domestic market price of medium and thick board fell slightly on 13th, the national average price of 20mm general board was 3976 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton lower than yesterday's average price.Among them, Shanghai, nanjing, fuzhou, guangzhou, wuhan, zhengzhou, Beijing, tianjin, chongqing and wu 'an fell 10-20 yuan/ton, while the rest of the market was mainly stable.In the market, today's futures shock downward, the market transaction atmosphere turns weak, the market bearish mentality is relatively strong, traders mainly to low shipping operation, market prices fell slightly.Steel mills, subject to the impact of lower profits, some steel production line to manganese board, variety board and other high value-added products, production enthusiasm is high, capacity utilization rate is still at a high level.In terms of market inventory, the thick and medium plate market inventory has been rising for several weeks, and the inventory pressure has increased.On the whole, the overall demand is still not good, is expected in the short term plate prices continue to maintain weak consolidation.


Coating: some domestic cities coating plate volume price fell slightly, in the futures disk drive up after the lack of support and back, and trading volume is also narrow.Specific price: galvanized sheet roll 1.0mm national average price 4709 yuan/ton, average daily price decreased 2 yuan/ton, color coated sheet roll 0.476mm national average price 5686 yuan/ton, average daily price decreased 5 yuan/ton.A few days ago, although the spot market in the futures pulled up the signs of upward, but due to inventory pressure to support the price sales are still difficult to ship, some merchants began to drop, other traders also follow the downward.And painted plate roll state-owned plants such as baosteel shares, baosteel castle peak and so on fell too much, it is reported that the listing price in July cut 100 yuan/ton, but the actual order discount reached 250 yuan/ton, still with the spot price is upside down, making traders more cautious to order in July.In terms of inventory, this week's release of the five varieties of social database in addition to the cold rolled plate coil is still in a state of decline, the other has a significant increase, hot rolled plate coil inventory may lead to further price decline, then the price of zinc is likely to continue to callback.Generally speaking, the market is still pessimistic, traders are not optimistic about the following market, and they will be cautious about futures.


Professional varieties




Data source: steel link data




Data source: steel link data


Section steel: 13 domestic section steel market price consolidation to run weak.Tangshan steel prices to run, the overall small reduction of 10-20 yuan/ton.After falling the market turnover is weak and no improvement, the market trading atmosphere is not active.In the afternoon, due to the direct release of billet settlement price in the morning, merchants began to move, some sections of steel prices rose, market confidence slightly boosted.East China market mainstream price stability, some cities slightly loose quotation.Early futures market shock weakening, spot transaction is still tepid, so merchants quote mainly consolidation, some areas affected by the mentality of price slightly loose.Afternoon spot market transactions slightly improved, but prices up.The price in the south China market is basically stable, but it is still raining today, the shipment is still not good, merchants are cautious, recently the price has been expanded with the north, local traders to steel mill replenishment volume has increased.Comprehensive forecast, near the weekend the market is still shipping mainly, prices or to maintain consolidation weak operation.


Steel pipe: today the national pipe market price is mainly stable, transaction performance is poor.Welded pipe, galvanized pipe, ruifeng today small narrow strip steel price cut 20 yuan/ton, the main pipe factory factory prices are cut 20 yuan/ton, recently black futures consolidation, five varieties of social inventory inflection point, the market wait and see increased sentiment, poor deal, business operation is still to reduce the bulk of the shipment.Expect short - term welded tube, galvanized tube prices will shock to run weak.Seamless tube, today shandong and jiangsu market price is weak stable operation, the factory because of inventory pressure, shandong seamless tube factory price weak operation.Merchants due to small shipments, expected demand is poor, generally more pessimistic mentality.Overall, because the seamless tube is too difficult to improve the situation, seamless tube prices are expected to continue to run weak in the short term.


Strip steel: today strip steel market prices fell slightly.Tangshan small narrow band after afternoon fall back, mainstream manufacturers reported 3730, afternoon overall market turnover is active, many clearing;In the afternoon, tangshan 355 strip steel fell 10, spot mainstream 3730-3740, ruifeng 3750-3760, the market fell dark, the transaction is weak.Wuxi market dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation was 3820-3840 yuan/ton. The market inventory decreased slightly, mainly caused by the transfer of local transit resources from tianwu warehouse to in-factory storage. At present, there is no obvious change in the market, so the shock is still weak.The hot rolled strip steel in lecong market is weak and stable. At the time of press release, the main stream of narrow band is 3920-3940 yuan/ton, while the broad band is 3940-3980 yuan/ton. The transaction is weak.




Data source: steel link data


Structural steel: today excellent special steel market inventory individual market small drop 20-30 yuan/ton, nationwide 45#3988 yuan/ton down 10 yuan/ton, 40Cr4229 yuan/ton down 11 yuan/ton, 20CrMnTi4372 yuan/ton down 10 yuan/ton, 20# tube blank 3786 yuan/ton.The total inventory of rods in the national special steel mills was 100.31 million tons, which was 85,500 tons more than last week, up 9.32% month-on-month, 193,700 tons more than the same period last year, up 23.93% year on year, and 14,100 tons more than the average in 2018, up 1.43%, and 440,000 tons more than the average in early 2019.This week, the national special steel mill inventory after the beginning of the year and then broke 1 million tons.Expect short - term special steel market prices continue to decline mainly.


Industrial wire: 13 national industrial wire prices fell slightly mainly, including cold heading, drawing and hard wire national average prices were lower than the previous trading day 1 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, by the end of the closing, the national average price of cold heading steel 4133-4159 yuan/ton, drawing 3970 yuan/ton, hard wire average price 4129 yuan/ton.In terms of inventory, the total amount of industrial wire products is 487,200 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons or 2.70% compared with the statistics of the same caliber last week.Among them, cold heading was 155,600 tons, which increased by 0.15 million tons or 0.97% compared with the statistics of the same caliber last week.Drawing 301,700 tons, an increase of 14,200 tons or 4.94% compared with the statistics of the same caliber last week;The hard line is 29,900 tons, which is 0.29 million tons or 8.84% less than the same caliber last week.