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Prediction: steel prices in the first half of 2019 bottom after the rebound will not be absent

Release:2019-03-11   Edit:Admin   From:Rising steel grating

 Wang jianhua first summarized the steel market in 2018, which is mainly reflected in the following aspects: rising prices, rising profits, increasing supply and demand, increasing efficiency, decreasing leverage and improving environmental protection.

Then, he pointed out that the steel market in 2019 in general will not come, but from the joy of worry, steel prices in the first half of 2019 bottom rebound will not be absent.

In terms of inventories, he said that according to the data of the third week after the holiday, the growth of steel mills' inventories was less than expected, the growth of social inventories was more than expected, and the increase of total inventories was slightly more than expected.According to the data of the fourth week after the holiday, compared with that before the holiday, the overall inventory turned better, and the social inventory pressure turned better faster than the steel inventory pressure.Overall, the pressure is lower than last year.

On the supply side, he said that the short-term supply fluctuated slightly, and the year-on-year increase was still maintained, but the month-on-month decline, the room for further increase was limited, mainly because the scrap price was at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate of arc furnace was inhibited.

On the demand side, he said that the short-term demand is better than the same period last year, and the later stage should consider the change of the real estate demand and the change of the foreign market demand.Transaction volume data monitored by Mysteel showed a significant upturn in construction material transactions at the end of February, supporting steel prices.

Raw materials, he said, the price of coke is temporarily in shock.Iron ore prices have been affected by the Brazilian dam incident and should not be underestimated.

Steel prices affect the market environment, he said, one is the year-on-year inventory growth will not be a big change;Second, the traders stock up and the agreement volume pressure to reduce;Third, liquidity improved;Fourth, the "black swan" may not have;Fifth, there should be no malicious manipulation of the market short phenomenon.

Finally, wang jianhua pointed out that in 2019, the peak of integrated steel prices fell back, the average price fell by 5-10%.